Last week, I shared my mid-term predictions about the future of work. Today, I'm sharing my long-term predictions:
Within 10-20 years, AI will be capable of doing 99.9% of the work that humans do today behind screens. Within 20 to 40 years, only a tiny fraction of the most intelligent humans will be doing knowledge work, mostly in AI and entrepreneurship.
Within 10-20 years, robots, humanoid and not humanoid, will be capable of doing 90%+ of physical tasks performed by humans today.
Adoption of robotics will be slow (20 to 100 years) because of costs and tariffs imposed by governments to protect human labor. Eventually, most physical tasks will be performed by robots, except in societies that enact strong bans on robots.
Within 20-100 years, 10-20% of adults will have a paid job, and another 10-20% of adults will have an unpaid job (they'll work not because of the money, but because it's fulfilling). The rest won't work.
Within 20-100 years, most jobs will be human-touch jobs (including entertainment, hospitality, sales, and volunteering). There will be some physical jobs (mostly in areas where robots are banned). There will also be a small number of high-end tech jobs (developing AI and robots) done by people with IQs in the 99th+ percentile.
Where do you see yourself?